UFC returns to the Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, June 20, with a flyweight rematch between two of the division's most accomplished fighters. Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi run it back in the main event of UFC Fight Night, a card that features 12 fights across five weight classes and streams exclusively on Paramount+.
The prelims kick off at 5 PM ET with the main card following at 8 PM ET. It's a deep card from top to bottom, with undefeated prospects, veteran gatekeepers, and a main event that could reshuffle the flyweight title picture.
Main Event: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi 2
Manel Kape enters as the betting favorite at -275 after the opening odds settled around that mark. Kyoji Horiguchi is the underdog at +235. The line shifted significantly from the opening numbers, which had Horiguchi as a -400 favorite, suggesting sharp money has come in on Kape as fight week approaches.
Kape is 22-7 and ranked No. 2 in the UFC flyweight division. He has won four of his last five fights, with his only loss in that stretch coming to current champion Alexandre Pantoja. He's a powerful striker with knockout ability in both hands, and he's shown steady improvement in his grappling since moving to American Top Team full-time.
Horiguchi is 36-5 and one of the most decorated flyweights of the last decade. He's a former RIZIN and Bellator champion who returned to the UFC in 2024. He won the first fight between these two back in 2021, submitting Kape with an armbar in the first round. That win came at RIZIN 28, and both fighters have evolved significantly since then.
FightMatrix projects Kape with a 60 percent win probability and predicts a unanimous decision victory. The most likely outcomes according to their models are Kape by decision (30 percent) or Kape by knockout (30 percent), with Horiguchi by decision at 25 percent being the next most probable result.
Co-Main Event: Navajo Stirling vs. Ion Cutelaba
The light heavyweight co-main event features undefeated prospect Navajo Stirling against the veteran Ion Cutelaba. Stirling is 9-0 and opens as a -350 favorite, with Cutelaba at +275. Cutelaba is 20-11-1 and has been in there with some of the best in the division, but he has lost four of his last five fights. Stirling is younger, faster, and has knockout power in both hands. This feels like a showcase fight for the prospect, and FightMatrix projections align with the betting line. Look for Stirling to finish this one inside the distance.
Key Fights on the Main Card
Vinicius Oliveira (23-4) meets Andre Fili (25-13) in a featherweight bout. Oliveira is ranked No. 12 in the division and is a -350 favorite. Fili has been a UFC mainstay for years and is always durable, but he is 1-3 in his last four and likely needs a win to stay on the roster. Oliveira should have too much volume and power for Fili, who has been stopped in two of his last three losses.
Christian Rodriguez (12-4) faces Hyder Amil (11-2) in another featherweight fight. Rodriguez is a -170 favorite with Amil at +140. Rodriguez is 5-2 in the UFC and has quietly built a solid resume at 145 pounds. Amil is 3-1 in the promotion and has shown flashes, but Rodriguez is the better-rounded fighter and should win a decision or find a submission.
Andre Lima (11-0) is a massive -600 favorite against Kevin Borjas (10-5) in a flyweight bout. Lima is undefeated and has looked impressive in his UFC appearances so far. Borjas has lost two straight and is in danger of being cut with another loss. This one could be quick.
Melsik Baghdasaryan (8-3) takes on undefeated Murtazali Magomedov (10-0) at featherweight. Magomedov is a -310 favorite. Baghdasaryan is talented but has struggled with consistency. Magomedov is a wrestling-heavy fighter who should be able to control where the fight takes place.
Preliminary Card Highlights
Bia Mesquita (7-0) is a -600 favorite against Melissa Mullins (7-2) in women's bantamweight action. Mesquita is a highly touted prospect with a strong submission game. Mullins is tough but this is a step up in competition that she may not be ready for.
Allan Nascimento (22-6) is a -250 favorite against Mitch Raposo (10-3) at flyweight. Nascimento is a veteran grappler who should have advantages on the mat. Raposo is game but likely overmatched.
Karol Rosa (19-7) takes on Luana Santos (10-2) in a women's bantamweight fight that is essentially a pick-em. Rosa is a slight favorite at -120 with Santos at +100. Rosa has more UFC experience but Santos has momentum after winning two straight. This is the toss-up of the card.
UFC Vegas 119 Betting Outlook
The card is heavy with favorites, which means finding value requires looking deeper than the moneyline. Parlays are popular for cards like this, but the most likely path to a profitable night is picking the right underdog live bets.
Rosa vs. Santos is the fight most likely to swing a bet slip. At near-even odds, either fighter can win and the value is real. If you believe in Horiguchi at +235, that's the big swing of the night — a champion-level fighter who has been counted out before and delivered.
The safest plays on the card: Stirling (-350), Lima (-600), and Magomedov (-310) all have clear paths to victory against overmatched opponents. Parlay those three and the payout is still modest, but the confidence level is high.
For fight props, Kape by decision at around +200 is worth a look. The models have it as the single most likely outcome of the entire main event, and at those odds it offers real value.
Prediction: Kape wins a competitive decision over Horiguchi, Stirling stops Cutelaba in the second round, and Lima stays undefeated with a submission in the second.
Marcus Bennett
Marcus Bennett breaks down games with a focus on style, pace, momentum, and matchup factors that help readers better understand the betting board.