Thursday's preseason slate saves some of its best backup-quarterback action for NRG Stadium, where the Houston Texans host the Los Angeles Chargers at 8 p.m. ET. Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud are expected to watch most of this one from the sideline — DeMeco Ryans said a "select group" of Texans would sit, and Jim Harbaugh implied roughly 15 Chargers starters won't play. That leaves the game to the quarterbacks fighting for jobs behind them, and the market has Houston as a narrow 1.5-point home favorite with the total at 36.5.
Texans Turn to Davis Mills and Graham Mertz
Stroud remains the clear starter in Houston, with Davis Mills holding down the backup spot — a setup that has been the Texans' mold for three years. Mills should see meaningful series against the Chargers, with rookie Graham Mertz expected to get plenty of reps behind him. Mertz, the former Wisconsin and Florida signal-caller, is auditioning for the No. 3 role and a roster spot.
The more intriguing battles are up front. The starting center job is open between rookie Keylan Rutledge and veteran Jake Andrews, and the tackle rotation will be tested against a Chargers front that still has some pop even without its stars. The Texans' rookie class and undrafted free agents — including a Stanford receiver named Wright who has been one of the surprises of camp — will get their first live-game evaluation.
Lance vs. Uiagalelei: The Chargers' Backup Derby
Harbaugh's plan is simple: former first-round pick Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei will each play roughly a half as they battle to be Justin Herbert's primary backup. Lance brings the athletic upside that once made him a top-three pick, while Uiagalelei is the developmental option with a big arm. Both need to show they can run the offense against a Houston defense that is expected to be without edge standouts Danielle Hunter and Will Andersen Jr.
The Chargers also have a real competition at left guard, where rookie Jake Slaughter has taken the lead in a crowded field that includes Trey Pipkins, Kayode Awosika, Trevor Penning and Branson Taylor. With Joe Alt, Rashawn Slater and Tyler Biadasz locked in around them, the left guard spot is the one real question mark on an otherwise settled line.
The Line and Market Signals
DraftKings has Houston at -1.5 (-135 moneyline) with the Chargers at +114 and a total of 36.5. The number opened around -1.5 and has held, a mild endorsement of Houston's quarterback depth — Mills is a proven starter-level backup, while Lance and Uiagalelei have combined for modest NFL production. The under at 36.5 has drawn support, which makes sense with two offenses likely to play it conservative once the backups take over.
The Pick: Texans 20-14
Mills gives the Texans the single biggest advantage on the field: a veteran who has started 30-plus NFL games and knows how to run a vanilla preseason offense efficiently. Houston's defense should also hold up well against Lance and Uiagalelei, who will be working behind a mixed offensive line. Take the Texans to win and cover the 1.5-point spread, and lean under on the total. Final projection: Texans 20-14.
Rebecca Hayes
Rebecca Hayes writes sports features, previews, and event coverage with a focus on the people, trends, and storylines that fans care about.