The 2026 NFL season features arguably the deepest field of comeback candidates in recent memory, headlined by a future Hall of Famer returning from a major injury and several other star quarterbacks looking to reclaim their form.
With training camps set to open in two weeks, here's a complete breakdown of the top Comeback Player of the Year candidates, their odds, and whether the betting value is there.
The Favorite: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (+200)
Mahomes tore his ACL late in the 2025 season, and the Chiefs cratered to a 6-11 record without him. At 30 years old and with a $450 million contract, Mahomes has every incentive to return to his MVP form. He said during offseason workouts that he expects to be ready for Week 1, though the Chiefs may ease him in.
The case for Mahomes is simple: he's Patrick Mahomes. If he plays 16+ games at even 90% of his normal level, the award is his. The NFL has a history of giving CPOY to superstar quarterbacks returning from major injuries — Joe Burrow won it twice (2021, 2024), and Mahomes fits the same mold.
But at +200, there's almost no betting value. The field is deep, and CPOY voters have shown they're willing to spread the award around.
The Value Play: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+525)
Burrow missed nine games in 2025 with a foot injury, and the Bengals missed the playoffs as a result. When healthy, Burrow is a top-three quarterback playing for a team that views him as the cornerstone of the franchise. He's already won CPOY twice — an unprecedented third win would require a truly special season.
The Bengals' offensive line is significantly improved, Ja'Marr Chase is still Ja'Marr Chase, and Burrow has something to prove. At +525, the value is compelling for a player who was the betting MVP favorite before his injury.
The X-Factor: Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (+2000)
Jones was on pace for 4,000 passing yards and 25 touchdowns when an Achilles tear ended his 2025 season in Week 14. He signed a two-year, $88 million contract with the Colts in March and has been cleared for all football activities entering camp.
The Colts believe in Jones. They paid him like a franchise quarterback, and his combination of arm talent and rushing ability fits Shane Steichen's system perfectly. If Jones plays 17 games and leads the Colts to the playoffs, he'll have a strong narrative — especially after the career rehabilitation he's undergone since leaving New York.
At +2000, Jones offers excellent value for bettors willing to take a shot on a player in a perfect situation.
The Dark Horse: Tua Tagovailoa, Atlanta Falcons (+4500)
Tua's career has been defined by injuries and questions about whether his body can hold up. But a move to Atlanta — where he'll compete with Michael Penix Jr. and play in Kevin Stefanski's offense — represents a genuine fresh start.
The talent around Tua is the best he's ever had: London, Pitts, Robinson, and a solid offensive line. If he wins the starting job and stays healthy, the narrative writes itself. At 45-1 odds, he's the definition of a longshot with real upside.
Complete CPOY Odds (via FanDuel)
- Patrick Mahomes — +200 (favorite, no value)
- Joe Burrow — +525 (solid value for proven CPOY winner)
- Kyler Murray — +600 (new team, veteran minimum deal, high motivation)
- Kirk Cousins — +750 (competent vet, but CPOY odds seem inflated)
- Anthony Richardson — +1500 (talent is real, availability is not)
- Nick Chubb — +3000 (non-QB getting respect from oddsmakers)
- Deshaun Watson — +3300 (long shot in every sense)
- Daniel Jones — +2000 (the value pick of the board)
- Malik Nabers — +2200 (if he returns strong from ACL and Giants improve)
- Tua Tagovailoa — +4500 (true dark horse, massive upside)
History of the Award
The Comeback Player of the Year award has historically favored quarterbacks returning from injury or veterans who revived their careers after poor seasons. Joe Burrow (2021, 2024), Joe Flacco (2023), Geno Smith (2022), and Christian McCaffrey (2025) are the most recent winners. The award has gone to a quarterback in four of the last five years, with McCaffrey being the lone non-QB exception.
Voters tend to value narrative over raw stats. Mahomes returning from ACL surgery and leading the Chiefs back to contention is the strongest story. But Burrow has shown he can win this award from any position, and Jones has the kind of redemption arc that voters love.
Our Pick
Mahomes is the deserved favorite, but the value is elsewhere. Burrow at +525 offers the best balance of likelihood and payout. Daniel Jones at +2000 is the tournament-style bet — if he hits, the return is massive. And Tua at +4500 is the "why not" flier for anyone looking for a true longshot.
Training camp opens July 27. The CPOY race begins in earnest when the pads come on.
Rebecca Hayes
Rebecca Hayes writes sports features, previews, and event coverage with a focus on the people, trends, and storylines that fans care about.