The National League MVP race was supposed to be a coronation. Shohei Ohtani has dominated this award for so long — first in the American League, then in back-to-back seasons after moving to the National League — that most of baseball had already mentally engraved his name on a fourth trophy. Then a 24-year-old center fielder in Chicago started doing things the sport hasn't seen in decades, and the script flipped. Now the debate isn't whether Ohtani will win. It's whether he even should.
The Poll Nobody's Talking About
ESPN went to the only people whose opinions actually matter — the players who have to face these two every night. They spoke to more than 20 players across nine different teams (excluding the Dodgers and Cubs), and the result was a landslide: Pete Crow-Armstrong over Ohtani, 15-4, with two players voting for a split MVP.
That margin should stop everyone cold. The men who live and die on the field — who have watched Ohtani's 100-mph fastball and heard the crack of his bat in person — still chose the everyday center fielder nearly four to one. "How cool for the sport," Guardians first baseman Rhys Hoskins said, "that somebody is playing out of their mind so we get to have this conversation. The reality is we get to watch maybe the best player to ever play this game in Shohei. So to have somebody that is stepping up to him this year, making a race out of it, is pretty frickin' cool."
PCA's Case Is Bigger Than the Box Score
Crow-Armstrong is having the kind of season that used to win MVPs outright. He's hitting .282/.379/.550 with 30 home runs, 79 RBI and 31 stolen bases — his second straight 30-30 season, making him the first Cubs player ever to post back-to-back 30-30 campaigns. He ranks second in the National League in stolen bases and leads all of Major League Baseball in Outs Above Average, the metric that measures defensive impact better than any eyeball test. His 8.2 WAR leads the majors. He's also the only player in baseball with a legitimate shot at 40/40 with 36 games remaining — the steals are nearly automatic, the power is the only question.
And he's doing it with theatrics. Tuesday night against the crosstown White Sox, PCA went 4-for-5 with a leadoff home run, a walkoff home run in the 10th inning, a double and a stolen base — clinching that second straight 30-30 with one swing at Wrigley Field. "He hasn't slowed down, and on top of that, he's arguably the best fielder in all of baseball," White Sox pitcher Trevor Richards said. "He's a complete player. That's for sure."
Ohtani's Case Is Real — And Frozen in Time
Let's not get this twisted: Ohtani is having an absurd season by any normal standard. He's hitting .294/.390/.558 with 30 homers and 80 RBI, ranking 1-2 with PCA in the NL in OPS and OPS+. And then there's the pitching: 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and 95 strikeouts over 85.2 innings in 14 starts — a first-half Cy Young campaign that had him in that conversation too. "A half-season of Cy Young-level pitching and what he does offensively, no one has done that on both sides of the ball," White Sox pitcher Sean Burke said. "He gets my vote."
But here's the problem: Ohtani hasn't pitched since July 3. Left knee inflammation shut down the pitching side of his game seven weeks ago, and while he threw a bullpen session Tuesday and said the knee "felt good," there is no guarantee he throws another competitive pitch before the regular season ends. The two-way version of Ohtani — the version that makes him arguably the greatest player ever — has not existed since the All-Star break.
The Uncomfortable Truth About MVP Voting
Here's the hot take the mainstream won't say out loud: if Ohtani doesn't pitch again this season, a vote for him is a legacy vote, not a value vote. The MVP is supposed to be a "this year" award, and this year — July 3 onward — Ohtani has been a very good designated hitter, not a two-way supernova. His combined WAR sits at 6.3. PCA's is 8.2. There is no statistical argument for Ohtani over Crow-Armstrong in a season where Ohtani's defining skill has been benched.
Yankees infielder Luis Garcia Jr. put it simply: "PCA is so good, but Ohtani does it all, hitting and pitching. I'll go with PCA." Reds pitcher Brady Singer added the key caveat: "If Ohtani was pitching, it would probably be him." That's the whole race in one sentence. The players are voting on what Ohtani did in April, May and June — not what he is right now. Crow-Armstrong is what he is right now, every single day, with elite defense that quietly changes games no stat line can capture. As Hoskins said: "In the true sense of the word, the guy that plays every day probably makes more of an impact on the team every single day."
The Verdict: It All Comes Down to a Knee
DraftKings has the two exchanging favorite status week to week, which tells you everything about how genuinely split the race is. And the truth is, one person decides this: Ohtani's left knee. If he returns to the mound down the stretch and makes even three or four real starts — let alone pitches like the 1.79 ERA version of himself — the two-way narrative becomes unstoppable and he wins his third straight NL MVP, fifth overall. The voters will not be able to resist the story.
But if that knee keeps him in the DH spot, the players have already shown us the ending. PCA wins the NL MVP, becoming the first center fielder to take the award since Dale Murphy in 1983 — and the first Cub to win it in over 30 years. It won't be an upset. The guys who have to stand in the box against both of them voted 15-4. The writers should probably listen.
Tyler Harlan
Tyler Harlan covers sports with an eye for rotations, trends, scheduling spots, and the game context that often gets overlooked.