The Philadelphia Phillies (43-36) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (41-39) in an NL East showdown at 6:45 PM ET on Wednesday, June 24.
Pitching Matchup
Aaron Nola (RHP, 3-4, 5.71 ERA) starts for the Phillies. The veteran right-hander has had an uncharacteristically rough season, posting a 5.71 ERA with 77 strikeouts. Nola has struggled with consistency, often getting into trouble with elevated pitch counts and hard contact. His underlying metrics suggest some regression to the mean could be coming, but he hasn't looked like his usual ace self.
Miles Mikolas (RHP, 2-6, 5.47 ERA) counters for the Nationals. Mikolas has also had a difficult season, carrying a 5.47 ERA with 43 strikeouts. The right-hander has been vulnerable to the home run ball and has struggled to miss bats at his career rate. Nationals Park has been a neutral-to-slight-hitters park this season.
Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Phillies -134 | Nationals +114
- Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+122) | Nationals +1.5 (-146)
- Total: 9.5 runs (Over -102 | Under -120)
- Favorite: Philadelphia Phillies (-134)
Recent Form
The Phillies (43-36) have been solid, sitting second in the NL East behind the Braves. Philadelphia's lineup is dangerous, featuring Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Brandon Marsh among others. The bullpen has been a strength, though the starting rotation has been inconsistent beyond Zack Wheeler.
The Nationals (41-39) have been competitive and are hovering around .500. Washington has a quality lineup led by Luis Garcia and a scrappy group that consistently battles. The Nationals have shown they can compete with anyone at home.
Analysis
Both starters bring inflated ERAs into this matchup, which makes the over/under of 9.5 an interesting proposition. If either pitcher struggles early, this game could quickly become a slugfest. Both lineups are capable of putting up crooked numbers.
The Phillies have the edge in lineup power and bullpen depth. Washington's offense has been productive at home, and they've shown an ability to cover run lines consistently. This game feels like it could go either way depending on which version of Nola shows up.
Prediction
Two struggling starters make this a volatile matchup. Philadelphia's lineup advantage and deeper bullpen give them a slight edge, but Washington is live as a home dog. The total of 9.5 makes sense given both starters' recent struggles.
Pick: Phillies moneyline (-134) | Predicted Score: Phillies 6, Nationals 4
Rebecca Hayes
Rebecca Hayes writes sports features, previews, and event coverage with a focus on the people, trends, and storylines that fans care about.