The National League MVP race officially became a two-man war on Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani stepped to the plate in the top of the first and crushed his 25th home run of the season for an instant 1-0 lead. Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, batting leadoff in the bottom half, answered with a home run of his own — his 25th of the year — and just like that, the two frontrunners had turned a midweek matinee into the perfect metaphor for one of the tightest award races in recent memory.
The Leadoff Duel That Set the Tone
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has been playing with the leadoff spot all season, and on Wednesday he put his two-way superstar at the top of the order. Ohtani rewarded the decision immediately, going yard in his first at-bat to give Los Angeles a quick 1-0 edge. It was the kind of instant-impact moment that has defined his entire career — the man simply does not need a warmup.
Crow-Armstrong answered in the bottom of the first, launching a leadoff homer of his own off Dodgers pitching to tie the game. Two leadoff blasts, two 25-homer seasons, one ballpark. If you needed a single snapshot of the 2026 NL MVP race, that was it: every at-bat from these two now carries outsized weight, and both are playing like they know it.
How Crow-Armstrong Closed a Runaway Gap
Just over two weeks ago, this race looked over. Ohtani was a -1500 favorite on the odds board on July 18, with Crow-Armstrong sitting as a distant second at +750. What has happened since is one of the most dramatic MVP surges in recent years.
Crow-Armstrong has been the hottest hitter in baseball since June. He hit .381 with 11 home runs, 20 RBIs and a .468 on-base percentage in June, then followed with a .306 average, five homers, 14 RBIs and a .451 OBP in July. That two-month tear has lifted his season batting average from .242 to .288 and vaulted him to a league-leading 7.0 WAR — the best mark in all of MLB.
Here's what separates PCA from the typical slugger's MVP case: he does it on both sides of the ball. He is an elite defensive center fielder playing a premium position, and MLB Network insider Jon Morosi said Wednesday that he believes Crow-Armstrong is currently the frontrunner precisely because of his combined offensive and defensive value. Voters love a complete player, and PCA is exactly that.
Ohtani's Case — and the Knee Problem
Ohtani is chasing a fifth career MVP trophy, which would put him in rarefied air. His numbers remain elite: 25 home runs, a .282 batting average and a 6.2 WAR that combines his hitting production with the value he provides as a starter on the mound.
But that last part is the catch. Ohtani has not pitched since July 3 because of lingering soreness in his left knee, and the Dodgers have been cautious with his return. His batting average has slipped from .293 to .282 since the All-Star break, and he had gone homerless over that stretch until Wednesday's blast. The injury matters for MVP voters in two ways: it removes the two-way dimension that made him so uniquely valuable, and it raises the risk that he misses time down the stretch. A 32-year-old superstar chasing history is still the slight favorite — but he is no longer the runaway.
The Odds Board Tells the Story
No metric captures this race better than the movement on the odds board. Ohtani has tumbled from -1500 on July 18 to -130, while Crow-Armstrong has surged from +750 to +100 — a razor-thin gap that effectively makes this a coin flip. Prediction markets have been even more aggressive, with Crow-Armstrong's implied probability reportedly jumping from around one percent to 43 percent in a matter of weeks.
The next tier is a distant one. Washington Nationals outfielder James Wood sits at +2500 after a strong season, and Kyle Schwarber rounds out the top four at +4000. This is a two-man race, full stop.
The Betting Angle
For anyone shopping MVP futures, the value calculus is straightforward. At +100, Crow-Armstrong is priced as a genuine co-favorite, and his case rests on staying hot while Ohtani's knee remains a question mark. If the Dodgers continue to hold Ohtani off the mound into September, the two-way edge that anchored his candidacy keeps eroding — and PCA's combination of elite defense, premium position and red-hot bat becomes a voter-friendly narrative that is hard to beat.
If Ohtani returns to the mound and pitches like himself down the stretch, the pendulum swings back hard in his favor, and +100 on PCA could look generous in hindsight. The Cubs, meanwhile, are in a wild-card fight that keeps every PCA at-bat nationally relevant, while the Dodgers are chasing the division. Narrative, health and late-season drama will decide this one — exactly the kind of race that makes MVP futures the most entertaining bet on the board in August.
Bottom Line
One month ago, the NL MVP was Ohtani's to lose. Now it is a dead heat between a two-way icon fighting through injury and a 24-year-old center fielder having a breakout season for the ages. They traded leadoff home runs Wednesday, and they may well trade the lead in this race a dozen more times before October. Buckle up — this one is going down to the wire.
Ryan Whitaker
Ryan Whitaker covers sports through a data-driven lens, using trends, matchups, and key numbers to turn complex information into useful takeaways.