Carson Benge went from the Opening Day afterthought who couldn't buy a hit to the most consistent bat in the New York Mets lineup, and Monday night he's the name everyone is talking about. The 23-year-old rookie homered in Saturday's 5-4 win over the Washington Nationals, ran his batting average to .385 over his last 10 games, and still carries DraftKings odds of just +3500 to win National League Rookie of the Year — fourth among rookies, behind even his own teammate. That gap between what Benge is doing and what the market is pricing is the most interesting story left in the NL awards race.
The Rookie Year Nobody Expected
Benge was the 19th overall pick in the 2024 draft out of Oklahoma State, where he starred as a two-way player, slugging 25 home runs and driving in 107 runs across 120 college games in 2023-24. He entered 2026 as MLB Pipeline's No. 16 prospect in baseball and the No. 2 prospect in the Mets system, made the big league roster out of spring training, and debuted on Opening Day.
Then the bottom fell out. Through the first week of April he was hitting .091, with just two hits in his first 30 at-bats. By the end of the month he was still below .190, and the Mets were fielding questions about whether the 23-year-old needed a reset in Syracuse. Instead, Benge did what rookies rarely do: he fixed it in the majors. Since May 1 he's hit .294 with a .354 on-base percentage and a .448 slugging percentage across 85 games, turning a lost-looking start into a legitimate rookie campaign.
The Second-Half Surge Is Real
What's happening now isn't a hot streak — it's a transformation. Since the All-Star break, Benge is hitting .319 with eight extra-base hits, 12 RBI, 11 runs scored and three stolen bases in 24 games. Over his past 10 games he's 15-for-39 (.385) with two doubles, a triple, two home runs, two steals, six RBI and seven runs scored. He has 14 home runs and 18 stolen bases on the season with a .275/.338/.419 slash line across 488 plate appearances, and his 122 hits rank third among all MLB rookies, trailing only Detroit's Kevin McGonigle and Colorado's T.J. Rumfield.
He's also playing a premium position well. Benge's outfield arm has drawn raves all season — MLB.com called it "big-time" — and he's flashed the kind of defensive range that shows up in highlight reels. In early August he crashed into the left-field wall in Pittsburgh making a catch, left the game with wrist soreness, got X-rays that came back negative, and was back in the lineup within days. The Heart & Hustle Award the Mets gave him earlier this month was a nod to exactly that style of play.
Why His Rookie of the Year Odds Still Lag
Here's the disconnect: Benge's counting stats stack up against any rookie in the league, yet the market treats him as an afterthought. On DraftKings, St. Louis Cardinals second baseman J.J. Wetherholt is the runaway NL Rookie of the Year favorite at -160, Cincinnati Reds infielder Sal Stewart is second at +130, and Mets teammate Nolan McLean sits at +3000 — just ahead of Benge at +3500.
The case for Wetherholt is real: he's a premium defender at second base with 16 homers, 75 runs scored and a .729 OPS in 113 games. But the counting stats between the two aren't nearly as far apart as the odds suggest. Benge has more hits, a higher average (.272 vs. .244), more steals (18 vs. 12) and similar power, and he's doing it while playing a more demanding position in a bigger market. The narrative has favored Wetherholt all season, and in awards races narrative is worth real money.
The Betting Angle
For bettors, this is a classic fade-the-narrative spot. There are still roughly six weeks left in the regular season, and Benge has been the hottest rookie in the league since the break. He would need to outperform Wetherholt significantly with the bat to flip the race, but he's already doing that — the gap in OPS between the two (.750 to .729) is nearly nothing, and Benge's second-half pace is clearly superior. At +3500, you're getting paid for a rookie who is out-hitting the favorite head-to-head right now.
The simplest way to play it is Benge on DraftKings at +3500 to win NL Rookie of the Year, a small ticket with a massive payoff if the market's inertia holds for another month. The risk is baked into the price: Wetherholt's defensive edge and the season-long narrative lead won't evaporate overnight. But if Benge keeps hitting like he has since the break — and Saturday's homer against Washington was just the latest example — the odds will start compressing quickly. Getting in before they do is the entire play.
What's Next for Benge and the Mets
The Mets are in the thick of the playoff race, and Benge has settled into a key role in the middle of the order, hitting cleanup regularly since returning from the wrist scare. He's on pace to finish with 15-plus homers, 20-plus steals and 130-plus hits as a rookie — a full, productive season that would make him the rare Mets rookie to put together a complete campaign from Day 1.
The numbers say Benge belongs in the Rookie of the Year conversation. The odds say he's a long shot. One of those is going to look very wrong in a month, and the market's slow adjustment is the kind of inefficiency this site is built to find. If you're shopping NL Rookie of the Year prices before the season's final stretch, the 23-year-old in Queens is the best value on the board.
Grant McAllister
Grant McAllister brings a seasoned eye to sports coverage, blending market context, team trends, and matchup details into clear analysis for everyday readers.