The Toronto Blue Jays head to Nationals Park tonight in what should be a get-right spot for a team that has underperformed expectations all season. At 49-59, the Blue Jays are essentially playing out the string, but that doesn't mean there isn't betting value here. First pitch is at 1:05 PM ET, and the pitching mismatch is glaring.
Trey Yesavage takes the ball for Toronto, and the rookie has been quietly impressive in his debut season. The 4-5 record is misleading — Yesavage owns a 3.92 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and has held opponents to a .234 batting average. His stuff plays: a mid-90s fastball with ride, a sharp slider that generates whiffs at a 32% clip, and a developing changeup that keeps lefties honest. Over his last four starts, he's posted a 2.89 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 24.1 innings. The arrow is pointing up.
Washington counters with Zack Littell, and this is where the mismatch lives. Littell is 7-8 with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .289 against him with 19 home runs allowed in 20 starts. At Nationals Park, his ERA balloons to 5.84. The Blue Jays lineup, for all its struggles this season, still has dangerous right-handed power with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer. Littell's inability to miss bats (6.8 K/9) against a patient Jays lineup is a recipe for crooked numbers.
The Nationals offense is middle-of-the-pack, ranking 14th in the NL in runs scored. They're led by CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz, but they lack the kind of thump that can consistently put up 5+ run games. Yesavage has been particularly tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .214 average, and the Nationals rely heavily on righty bats.
Toronto's bullpen has been a liability all season, but Yesavage has been going deep into games lately — averaging 6.2 innings over his last five starts. If he can get through the 6th with a lead, the Jays have Yimi Garcia and Chad Green to shorten the game. Washington's bullpen has a 4.39 ERA, so once Littell exits, there's no relief in sight.
The total is set at 8.5. Given Littell's home run problem and Yesavage's recent form, the Over is the play here. Washington's bullpen will give up additional runs, and Toronto should plate 5-6 off Littell alone.
Prediction: Blue Jays 7, Nationals 3
Picks: Blue Jays ML (-135) and Over 8.5 (-110)
Tyler Harlan
Tyler Harlan covers sports with an eye for rotations, trends, scheduling spots, and the game context that often gets overlooked.