The College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams a year ago, and the result was the most unpredictable national championship run in modern history. Indiana went 16-0, beat Miami in the title game, and flipped the entire sport on its head. Now the Hoosiers have to defend — and the rest of the country has spent the offseason trying to catch up. Ohio State opens as the betting favorite at +600, but the gap between the top contenders is razor-thin. With Heisman favorites Arch Manning and CJ Carr leading the market, Jeremiah Smith looking to do something no wide receiver has done in 80 years, and the SEC-Big Ten arms race showing no signs of slowing down, the 2026 season has the potential to be the most competitive in college football history.
Ohio State Is the Favorite, but the Field Has Never Been Deeper
Ohio State opens as the +600 favorite at BetMGM to win the national championship, and it is easy to see why. Quarterback Julian Sayin returns after a spectacular redshirt freshman season in which he completed 77 percent of his passes and finished fourth in Heisman Trophy voting. Tailback Bo Jackson rushed for over 1,400 yards as a sophomore, and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is the early favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. The Buckeyes went 12-2 last season and won the Big Ten regular season outright, losing only to Indiana in the conference championship and falling to Georgia in the playoff semifinals. The roster is loaded, the schedule is manageable, and the betting market believes this is the most talented team in the country.
But the depth behind Ohio State is what makes this season different. Notre Dame, Oregon, and Texas are all priced at +700, just one chip behind the Buckeyes. Notre Dame has CJ Carr, a sophomore quarterback who threw 24 touchdowns and led the Irish to a 10-2 regular season. Oregon returns Dante Moore, who has been in the Heisman conversation for two years, and Texas has Arch Manning, the most talked-about quarterback in the sport. Any of those three teams would have been a consensus preseason No. 1 in most years. This season, they are co-second choices in a market that has no clear favorite.
Defending champion Indiana checks in at +750 after completing a 16-0 season that included wins over Ohio State, Alabama in the Rose Bowl, and Miami in the national championship game. The Hoosiers lost several key pieces to the NFL, including quarterback Kurtis Rourke, but Josh Hoover — a transfer from TCU who threw for over 3,500 yards last season — steps in at quarterback. Curt Cignetti has proven he can win anywhere, but the question is whether Indiana can sustain success after a magical run that caught the entire country off guard. The betting market is skeptical but respectful, pricing the Hoosiers at +750 as the fifth choice.
The Heisman Race: Carr and Manning Lead, but History Says Beware
The Heisman Trophy market is headlined by two quarterbacks: Notre Dame's CJ Carr and Texas's Arch Manning, both at +750. Carr has the better statistical case after a 24-touchdown, 10-2 season as a freshman. Manning has the name and the national profile that draws attention even when his raw numbers lag behind. Both are legitimate contenders, and both have a clear path to the award if their teams reach the College Football Playoff.
The most interesting name on the board is Jeremiah Smith at +1200. A wide receiver has not won the Heisman since Desmond Howard in 1991, and the last non-quarterback to win was Alabama running back Derrick Henry in 2015. Smith is good enough to break that drought. He caught 18 touchdowns last season as a true sophomore and is the most physically dominant receiver in college football. The problem for Smith is that voters have an ingrained bias toward quarterbacks, and he plays in a loaded offense that shares touches with Bo Jackson and four other future NFL skill players. If Ohio State wins big and Smith posts numbers that force voters to pay attention, he has a real shot. But +1200 is a fair price given how much has to break right.
The value end of the board starts with Julian Sayin at +1100. Sayin finished fourth in the Heisman voting last year despite not being a full-season starter. With a full offseason as the clear No. 1 quarterback, his efficiency numbers should be even better. Only one preseason Heisman favorite has won the award in the past 17 years — Marcus Mariota in 2014 — which means the +750 on Carr and Manning is actually worse value than it looks. Sayin, Dante Moore (+1200), Josh Hoover (+1200), or Darian Mensah (+1100) all offer better risk-reward profiles.
College Football Playoff Outlook: Big Ten and SEC Dominate Again
The 12-team playoff format means that the margin for error is larger than ever, but the list of realistic contenders is still shorter than most fans want to admit. Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oregon, Texas, Indiana, and Georgia are the clear top tier. Georgia checks in at +900 after a 12-2 season that ended with a playoff semifinal win over Ohio State and a narrow loss to Indiana in the championship game. Gunner Stockton takes over at quarterback, and the Bulldogs have the best defense in the country on paper.
Alabama and LSU are both priced at +1500, representing the most interesting value plays. Alabama has been in the preseason top five of every major poll for so long that +1500 feels almost disrespectful. The Crimson Tide reload every year, and this season's roster is as talented as any in the SEC. LSU has Sam Leavitt, who threw for over 3,200 yards at Arizona State before transferring, and a schedule that sets up well for a playoff run. Texas Tech at +1500 is the wild card after winning an injunction that cleared Brendan Sorsby to play. Sorsby was one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country last season, and the Red Raiders have the talent to make noise in a wide-open Big 12.
The Group of Five is likely to be shut out of the preseason top 25 entirely, which makes their playoff path even steeper. The 12-team format guarantees one Group of Five representative, but that team has to navigate a schedule with fewer resources and a selection committee that has historically undervalued non-power conference resumes.
The Bottom Line for Bettors
Ohio State at +600 is the right favorite, but there is no value in a team priced that short in a field this deep. The better plays are in the +700 to +1500 range, where actual value exists. Notre Dame at +700 has the most favorable path to the playoff of any team in the top tier. The Irish have no conference championship game to navigate and play the weakest schedule of any contender. If CJ Carr takes the step forward that the Heisman odds suggest he will, +700 on a team that could go 11-1 or 12-0 in the regular season is a steal.
In the Heisman market, Julian Sayin at +1100 offers the best blend of talent, team success, and price. He plays for the preseason favorite on a team that will be in the national spotlight every week. If Ohio State beats Notre Dame in the regular season and Sayin outplays Carr head-to-head, his odds will drop below +500 by October.
For a true long shot, Jeremiah Smith at +1200 to win the Heisman as a wide receiver is the kind of bet that pays off once a decade. Smith has the talent to do it, and if he stays healthy, he will be the most talked-about player in college football by November. The historical bias against non-quarterbacks is real, but +1200 on a player who could catch 20 touchdowns is the kind of bet that looks brilliant in December and forgotten by August if it does not hit.
Nathan Caldwell
Nathan Caldwell edits and writes multi-sport coverage for True Grit Sports, turning game notes, market movement, and key trends into readable context.